On the Texas Floods

It’s been nearly a month since the terrible floods of the Texas Hill Country, when in the dark of July 4th the Guadalupe River rose over 25 feet in a matter of hours. I can’t imagine the pain, anger, and stunned disbelief felt by those directly impacted. Over 130 deaths, millions of dollars in damages, and a shellshocked community are left to sort through the aftermath.

It’s hard to fathom how this could have happened…yet it appears that a uniquely American clusterfuck of political cowardice, geographic and climatic conditions, and willful ignorance made a bad situation worse. Of course there was heroism and sacrifice as well…but the whole situation - while maybe not preventable - could have been more predictable and manageable.

As a native of Texas with friends and family in the area…the event struck home. My Aunt lives in Kerrville, Texas not far away from the Guadalupe. Thankfully she was not impacted. But it could have been a much different outcome. This wasn’t the loss of some distant vacation destination or exotic local. This was my childhood home, where I played and vacationed and formed my identity.

Floods in Texas have always been a risk. It doesn’t seem like that should be the case, it’s a mostly dry state of prairie and desert with some pine trees tucked away to the East. But as has been well explained, the geology of Texas combined with an eco-system that is not used to water, supercharged by the occasional hurricane or supercell, acts like a funnel for floods.

For a time our family had a small piece of property on the North Bosque River, just outside of Valley Mills, Texas. One year I got to see first hand the bizarre effects of a flash flood. When I was in High School the area was inundated by rain and the river rose dozens of feet, beyond what you could easily imagine. Think of a two story house, a Wal-Mart, a medium sized church…then picture water submerging it within hours.

Like the Guadalupe, the North Bosque had a riverbed of limestone which closed off any escape route for excess water. The banks were quickly swamped and the water spread across a third of our 30 acre piece of land. It happened so fast. My father and I drove out there to see the damage, and I couldn’t believe how a lake had formed where I used to play. About a week later, I drove out again after the waters receded. I walked around looking at farm equipment stuck 15 feet up in a tree, a dead cow that floated onto our neighbors property, and fish stuck in landlocked pools 100 yards from the river.

Mother Nature can always surprise you.

What people not from Texas should understand is how much of a double-tragedy this is…the area that we call the “Hill Country”, and the Guadalupe River in particular, are truly God’s Country. It’s perhaps the most beautiful region of the state not counting Big Bend. It’s where Texans from all over choose to vacation, spend the weekend, go to Camp, and escape the summer heat by splashing in a cool, clear river. It’s a right of passage to float down the Guadalupe with your friends in an old inner tube with beer in hand.

Imagine Cape Cod for Bostonians, wine country for San Franciscans, or the Hamptons for New Yorkers. The Hill Country is that place for Texans…beautiful, but not too far. It’s where you held your wedding, hosted a family reunion, or partied with college friends.

I remember vividly spending a weekend with my family at a resort not a mile or two away from Camp Mystic. We swam in the Guadalupe, soaked up the sunshine, and sat in the shade of the cypress trees watching the distinct green, clear water flow towards the Gulf of Mexico.

It truly is a magical place. And now it’s stained by the memory of the July 4th floods…damaged and twisted. For thousands of Texans, their favorite fishing hole, rope swing, and summer hideaway is now a graveyard haunted by sorrow.

The area will recover, as these things do. Mother Nature will grow back and heal.

But a vital part of the Texas soul has been lost…

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Out of glum curiosity, I wanted to see how Kerr County ranked in my homemade climate risk index that I created as part of my series “My Climate Change House Hunt.” I thought it might be interesting to see how Kerr ranked in terms of flood risk, among other factors.

Overall, Kerr County ranked in the top 10% of most risky counties in the country. It scored particularly bad on numerous health factors, infrastructure, and of course heat and wildfires. River flooding was also a big factor - Kerr County was in the top 5%.

Texas as a whole will get hammered from multiple directions from climate change. This has already been happening although it’s not widely noticed. Texas alone accounts for over 1/3 of all damages from extreme weather in the US during the last 10 years.

We like to think of Florida (hurricanes) and California (wildfires) as the big risky states due to global warming - and they are. But Texas leads the pack. This is partially due to size, but also due to the variable risks that Texas is exposed to…heat, flooding, sea-level rise, hurricanes, hail, tornados, drought, and wildfires. Texas gets clobbered from all directions.

I take no pleasure in the fact that my silly model was validated here. The data is widely available, the science is vetted. Most sensible people could have anticipated this awful event.

Yet willful ignorance and profit driven ego keeps us as a society from tackling the root causes of climate chaos…and reducing the risk of future tragedies. I keep waiting for our climate ‘Pearl Harbor’ or Sputnik moment…something that crosses a line and galvanizes us toward action. A trigger that convinces people that only we can solve this problem together.

Still waiting…

Parting Proclamation

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Disclaimer:

All content and opinions are solely those of the author (Jack), and not representative of my employer, former employers, anyone in Congress, my family, former college roommates, Baptists, the good citizens of Colorado, or my dog Mabel.